How many lands do you need to hit your third land drop on curve? How often is a four-of in your opening seven? Enter your deck size and copies and see the odds for every turn.
Opening hand: 39.9% to have at least 1 of 4 copies.
| By | Cards seen | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Opening hand | 7 | 39.9% |
| Turn 1 | 7 | 39.9% |
| Turn 2 | 8 | 44.5% |
| Turn 3 | 9 | 48.8% |
| Turn 4 | 10 | 52.8% |
| Turn 5 | 11 | 56.6% |
| Turn 6 | 12 | 60.1% |
| Turn 7 | 13 | 63.4% |
| Turn 8 | 14 | 66.5% |
Before any mulligan.
This is an early version of the draw odds calculator, and more is on the way. Tell us what you want it to answer.
Asking about real cards or a scenario, such as at least four defence reactions and no blues in your opening hand? Load a deck above, or open the calculator in the Magic: The Gathering deck builder: every stat and any set of cards in your list can be a condition there, up to four at once.
In Magic you draw an opening hand of seven, then one card at the start of each turn. The player who goes first skips that first draw, so on the play you have seen one card fewer by any given turn. Switch between going first and second to see how much that costs you.
The maths is hypergeometric: you are drawing without replacement from a fixed deck, so every card you draw changes the odds of the next one. A 60-card deck with 24 lands, for example, sees at least three lands by turn three going second far more often than a deck with 20.
For Commander, set the deck size to 99 and copies to 1 to see how often you find a specific card. Mulligans are not included: the odds shown are for the hand you are dealt.
Rules reference: Magic Comprehensive Rules 103.5 and 103.8.
Most constructed decks run between 20 and 26 lands. Put your land count in as copies, set "at least" to the land drop you need, and check the turn you need it by.
Yes. The player going first skips their first draw, so by any turn they have seen one card fewer than the player going second.
Yes. Use 99 as the deck size (your commander is not in the library) and 1 copy to find a single card.
Game rules change from time to time, and we update this page when they do. If something here looks out of date or wrong, please let us know.